Russia’s Northern Sea Route Sees a Busy Summer for Arctic Shipping
According to a recent report by the Center for High North Logistics, traffic between China and Russia continues to be the main source of Arctic transit shipping traffic on the Northern Sea Route. Russia is exporting coal, iron ore, and crude oil to China, and container shipping is happening almost equally in both directions. According to a new report by Norway’s Center for High North Logistics (CHNL), 30 transit voyages carrying approximately 1.3 million tons of cargo have already taken place on Russia’s main Arctic shipping lane during the first two months of the summer and fall navigation season of 2024.
The analysis of shipping traffic reveals that, with 98% of cargo moving between the ports of the two nations, the relationship between Russia and China for Arctic development and shipping remains dominant. Bulk commodities like coal and iron ore, along with crude oil, make up the majority of the cargo flow from Russia to China.
900,000 tons of raw petroleum
Nine oil tankers carrying about 900,000 tons of crude oil have so far sailed to China from the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Murmansk, and the Prirazlomnaya oil platform. About 416,000 tons, consisting of a combination of coal, iron ore, and mineral fertilizers, were transported by five bulk carriers. The Baltic Sea and Murmansk were once more the origin of the vessels.
There has been less traffic in the opposite direction, with tankers and bulk carriers frequently returning in ballast. Container shipping, however, is an exception to this rule, with ships transporting cargo in comparable quantities in both directions.
About 17,000 tons of containerized cargo were transported from China to the Russian port of Arkhangelsk by four box ships based in China or Hong Kong, with two of the ships carrying 11,000 tons of cargo on the return trip. Given the number of larger container ships that have recently entered the route – including the first-ever Panamax, Flying Fish 1 – and the fact that they are traveling through the Arctic, those numbers are expected to rise significantly over the next two months.
Focused on China and Russia
Although transit shipping is highly concentrated in Russian ports, it does experience significant seasonal variability. The specialists at CHNL observe that no international transits have been reported in the first two months of this summer’s shipping season. Every ship had a Russian port of origin or destination. In past summers, the route saw some international traffic connecting port pairs outside of Russia, particularly before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Given that September is the busiest month and the current rate of transit traffic, the CHNL predicts that 2024 transit traffic will surpass the record of 2.1 million tons set last year.

Close to Murmansk
Transit traffic typically lasts through November, and it might even last longer based on the vessel’s classification on the ice and the state of the ice. However, occasionally, circumstances can quickly worsen, trapping ships in rapidly forming sea ice and necessitating the intervention of Russia’s icebreaking fleet for rescue. A larger amount could originate from Russia’s growing LNG shadow fleet. Initially, a number of LNG cargo loads from the approved Arctic LNG 2 project were moved to a holding location close to Murmansk via a westerly route. They might eventually be transshipped, adding to the contingent of transit traffic as they move eastward toward Asia. When the EU-wide ban on the transshipment of Russian LNG takes effect in March 2025, some modifications to the traffic pattern along the Northern Sea Route may also become apparent the following summer.
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